Open-Source Fire Science

Case STudy 2018 Thomas Fire

2018 Thomas Fire

Ignitions: 12/4/18 6:26 PM and 7 PM near Santa Paula, CA

Two ignitions during a strong, long-duration Santa Ana wind event set off the Thomas Fire. During the initial run, the two ignitions merged and the fire raced through Ventura county toward the ocean, driven by winds down the Santa Clarita River Valley and over the southern Sierra Nevada mountains. This period is characterized as a “wind-driven event”.

CAWFE simulation

During later periods, the Santa Ana event waxed and waned, varying in where and when strong winds reached the surface. In addition, the fire spread into the mountains north of the river valley, drawing itself up canyons and bowls sheltered from the winds.

2018 Thomas Fire
Figure T1. CAWFE simulation of the first day of the Thomas fire at midnight Dec. 5, 2017. Heat flux from fire (in W/m-2) is colored according to upper color bar. Wind speed arrows (in m s-1) point downstream and are colored according to the lower color bar at right.
2018 Thomas Fire
Figure T2. CAWFE simulation of the Thomas fire on 12/8/17 at 4 PM PDT.. Heat flux from fire (in W/m-2) is colored according to upper color bar. Wind speed arrows (in m s-1) point downstream and are colored according to the lower color bar at right.

CAWFE simulation