Open-Source Fire Science
The fully coupled Fire Risk Simulation Model (FRSM) and Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) framework is an innovative, modeling system that integrates wildfire dynamics with vegetation, land use, and carbon processes to project how California’s landscapes will evolve under changing climate and management conditions. In this coupled system, FRSM statistically simulates the probability, size, and severity of large wildfires based on downscaled climate data, vegetation structure, and human development patterns, while LUCAS tracks annual changes in land cover, biomass, and carbon fluxes across ecosystems. The two models exchange information at every time step (e.g., annually): FRSM draws on LUCAS outputs, such as live and dead biomass, fuel loads, and land-use configuration, to estimate fire occurrence and severity; in turn, LUCAS incorporates FRSM’s simulated fires to update vegetation composition, fuel structure, and carbon pools for subsequent years. This bidirectional feedback allows the coupled framework to realistically capture how fire and fuels co-evolve, how increasing wildfire activity reshapes vegetation and carbon storage, and how shifting vegetation and management actions influence future fire behavior. By combining data from advanced climate projections, land-use scenarios, and fuel treatment strategies, the FRSM/LUCAS framework produces detailed, spatially explicit forecasts of wildfire risk, vegetation change, and carbon balance through the end of the 21st century. These outputs provide scientists, land managers, and policymakers with actionable insight into how different climate and management choices can shape California’s wildfire future and long-term ecological resilience. Code for the FRSM/LUCAS Modeling Framework will be made available soon at the Pyregence Github repository.